Wednesday, December 19, 2012

Baseball's Top 100???

First of all, I looked through this whole list on ESPN.

As I did so, I found myself disagreeing with several positions.  Derek Jeter was way too high.  Why was Cy Young placed below so many pitchers?  Why did they neglect to make adjustments for the Drug Lords?  Why was Pete Rose, all time hits leader, but far over-rated, so high on the list? 

Clearly, any thinking baseball fan will have some issues with any such list.  But, most baseball fans also love the idea of someone putting together such a list. 

I love reading about the history of baseball.  I love reading about one man's opinion (or a group of men) on who the best players in history were.  There's something about the nostalgia of baseball that is like eating a good chocolate--do it slowly, enjoy every bite, savor every moment.  

Recently I read Larry Dierker's "My Team: Choosing My Dream Team From My Forty Years in Baseball".  The idea was similar to this Top 100 list.  The twist was that he chose two players from each field position, then a group of starting pitchers, and a group of relievers--for his team, then for a second team.  His list didn't include the Babe Ruths and Ty Cobbs of baseball, but men who played during his forty years (as indicated in the title).   He chose with things like "club house guy" in mind, made note of folks who had been sort of evicted from various teams, put together some folks based upon which would do better against right or left-handed pitching, etc.  He included numbers on folks, too, but those were not his only criteria.  He was able to go a bit deeper on some things, because he had a more intimate knowledge of the players of whom he spoke.

I would love to find more books like this.  Recently I was remembering that early in my life it was baseball that drove me to read.  I recalled getting a book about Hank Aaron when I was in third or fourth grade, reading it more than once, and going back to the library for more.  Aaron quickly became one of my biggest baseball heroes, though I learned of him at the end of his brilliant career.  But I read of other historic greats--Mantle, Mays, Ruth, Cobb, Gehrig, .....

What fun!

Speaking of fun, I've been contemplating the possibility of writing my own "best of" list.  I've often thought that we needed a new metric to capture the best-of-the-best.  WAR seems like a pile of I-can't-touch-this data.  It doesn't seem like something the casual fan can grasp.  The defensive metrics alone are well beyond the capability of a casual fan to capture.  I once tinkered with some ideas on Runs.  Maybe I will dig into some of those new-fangled numbers in Baseball Reference or something.

But, one thing keeps coming back to me--I want any list that I create to be casual fan-friendly.  There are metrics that the casual fan has used for ages that the sabermetric folks mock.  I listen to ESPN's Baseball Today podcast, so I've heard how nasty those mockers can be.  Their character is suspect. 
Are they right?  Well, they are probably right on the numbers.  But their nastiness really taints their message.  Plus, they love saying things like "Wins don't matter" for pitchers.  I understand their point, but that doesn't make me think they are intelligent.  Nobody can convince me that King Felix deserved the Cy Young award when he won 13 games.  Don't tell me a great pitcher cannot win for a bad team.  The 2010 Seattle Mariners were better than the 1972 Phillies.  Go tell Steve Carlton you can't win for a losing team.  Given a voice, I would have voted for someone like Price or CC.  Even Buckholz.  The mockers would mock me and audibly speak of my stupidity.  That's okay.  I have little respect for their hatred.  I just can't vote for someone who has a mere 13 wins.  What good did they do their team? 

But... dangit.  When it comes to the sabermetric numbers like WAR, King Felix was the best pitcher.  That's just another reason I can't quite trust that number.  It doesn't think the way Dierker could by his knowledge of individual players.  Who really wants a Barry Bonds in the clubhouse?  Nobody.  Who wants him in their lineup?  Everybody.  He is a cancer, like TO in football.  A team probably performs at a lower level with such horrific characters in their clubhouse--in spite of what he brings to the table in personal performance. 

The King Felix thing reminds me of having Miguel win the Triple Crown.  His season was far less impressive than many individual seasons that have happened since 1967, but nobody else stepped up this year.  Heck, even Mike Trout's year was more impressive.  He missed a month of the season, but set all kinds of rookie records.  He had a fabulous season for a veteran.  On that point, I stand with the WAR folks.  In fact, a quick browse of Baseball Reference shows no less than 38 seasons since 1967 that were superior to Cabrerra's this year.  Including, of course, Trout's season--which was shorted by one month. 

I'm going to think a bit about this Top 100 idea.  I suspect I will create something.  Eventually.  I will just need to think through what criteria I would use, what the point of my list will be (single team?  best of all time?  what what?), etc. 

Fun to come.

Wednesday, October 24, 2012

The 2012 World Series

When this year's playoffs got past the one game playoff "series", there were five teams left for whom I could cheer.  Yes, I know, I'm an Indians fan.  Well, when one is an Indians fan, but also a big baseball fan, it is nice to have someone to cheer for when the annual Indians Out Of The Playoffs Magic Number comes around in mid-August (or something). 

So, I would have been happy to see the Reds in it until the end.  The Big Red Machine (about whom I read recently in a fun-read, "The Machine", by Joe Posnanski) was there when I was getting originally immersed in the world of baseball.  I was living on the outskirts of Cleveland (Bedford, Ohio, to be exact), but my grandparents in Columbus were big Reds fans.  So, when we visit them during the World Series of 1975, my fandom got a tremendous start by watching the Reds win the big one against the Red Sox.  What an awesome year. 

Anyway, I would have loved to see the Reds make it all the way.  [Sigh]

Here were my five-out-of-eight:

Reds
Rangers (I'm a big Nolan Ryan fan, as well as a Josh Hamilton fan... little did I know NR would say some hard things about JH at the end, but I don't blame him)
Cardinals
A's
Nationals

Ideally, the World Series would have been the Reds against the A's--and the Reds would have won vengeance for the 1972 World Series.  Yes!  If anyone out there knows of a good video story of that World Series, I'd love to hear about it.  Having 7 games in a World Series is ideal, but having 6 of them decided by one run?  Holy cow.  That's awesome.

A little factoid here--the Reds outscored the A's in that World Series, 22 to 15.  Too bad that doesn't offer any real salve to the overall loss.

I would have been cheering for the Rangers, for sure.  Watching their sudden and unbelievable demise was painful.  Lose the division on the last day?  Wow.  Nolan, I sure hope you and yours come back to the Big Dance next year (unless the Indians do the never-expected).

I would have cheered for the Cardinals, even though they just won it last year.  I love the fact that they made it as far as they did even though they lost a formerly top-notch player to bigger money, lost a HOF manager, and worked with a rookie big league manager.  They had a great year, and, in my opinion, were by far the better team than the team that removed them from the World Series.  Definitely had a better line-up.

Ah, well.

The A's?  Well, though I've never been a fan, Billy Beane has me intrigued.  I'd love to see him working his magic for the Indians, but... still, his incredible GMing with the A's brings hope to this small market fan.  Keep at it!

Then there's the Nat's.  What a story.  They stunk so bad that they got the top pick two years in a row--and both have come around to play in the bigs in a good way.  I'm looking forward to many years of Strasburg and Bryce.  Rise to stardom, guys!


So, clearly, four of my five hopefuls were eliminated in that round.  That sucked. 


Here we are--a World Series with the Central Division foe Tigers and the Left Coast Giants.  Gah.  I'll watch, but only because I love baseball.  Not even sure who I will cheer for yet.  I really didn't want Cabrera to be the first Triple Crown winner in 45 years--I'd far rather that had gone to Josh Hamilton, Albert Pujols, or our guy Votto.  Alas, it was not to be.

Now to get some snacks for the boys tonight.

Friday, October 5, 2012

MVP

Alright, I'll just come out and say that I think Mike Trout is the MVP of the AL this year. 

No, I'm not that big on all the latest metrics.  WAR is a nice number, but there are two different versions.  There is only one RBI number--and everybody knows how it works.  There is a "historic" WAR number in the possession of Mike Trout--which is pretty cool, considering the fact that he wasn't an Angel until a month into the season.  But that can also be said of all his other numbers.  For example, he is the only player to ever have 30 HRs, 40+ SBs, and 125+ runs.  He came very close to getting into an exclusive 30 HR / 50 SB club, but everybody in the stadium on the last night knew he was going for it, so an average catcher caught him doing so.  Which, by the way, was only the fifth time this year that he was caught stealing.

Who would have thought that Mike Trout would tie Albert Pujols in HRs for the year? 

Nobody.  Not even I, who believed Pujols was already on the decline. 

But Mike Trout hit a HR in the major leagues before Pujols did this year.  Yup, beat him by one day, though Pujols had played 27 games by the time he hit his first, while Trout had played in six.  In the end, they tied at 30. 

Thirty?!  Ten years and 240 million dollars for a man who hasn't hit .300 in two years, hit only 30 HRs, had 105 RBIs, OBP of only .343, and a WAR of merely 4.6.  He was in 8th for RBI's (a stat that many of the new folks think is meaningless... which I still don't get, because runs are kind of important), 10th in HRs (tied with his rookie teammate who didn't play a whole season), and nowhere near the top ten in WAR. 

I'm sorry, I really like Pujols, but his year totally indicates the Angels made a huge mistake.  I can (and do) hope that he comes back and wins the Triple Crown next year. 

And, speaking of the Triple Crown, ... really?  How did Cabrera end up being the one to get this unusual award?  Well, for one, by the sad demise of Pujols, who should have earned at least one of those leading categories.  Also, by the Yankee skipper removing Granderson from the last game when he was hot on the trail of the HR lead.  Also, by the caffeine-free Hamilton bailing out during the last two weeks of the season. 

Cabrera had a tremendous year, yes.  It is arguable that this isn't his "career year".  I congratulate him on winning the Triple Crown, but I wish he hadn't.  First, because he plays for Detroit (remember--I'm an Indians fan).  Second, because I would prefer having Hamilton or Pujols or Votto pull it off (there are no Indians who would be even remote possibilities--at least not since Manny).  Third, because it will probably mean all the stodgy old reporters will vote for him rather than Trout, who clearly deserves the award. 

[Sigh].  Whatever.

Monday, July 2, 2012

Mid-Season Hopeful Projections

It is almost time for the All-Star break, so this morning I was looking around at a few players to see what their current "projections" are for the year.  One thing I love about baseball is--the numbers.  They intrigue me, fascinate me, get my attention, make me feel giddy and free.

Or something.

So, I'm going to provide somewhat of a "wish list" here, with some of those projections in mind.

World Series

The World Series that I hope for every single year is simply this--Cleveland Indians vs Cincinnati Reds, Indians win in seven.

Yes, I totally realize that this is fantasy.  But, heck, this is my baseball blog, right?

I'd even be good with the Indians being down 3-0 after three games--as long as they don't break my heart again like they did in 1997!  (Jose Mesa is NOT available now, right?)

World Series II

Okay, since my fantasy World Series is less than likely (Tiger Woods has a better chance of winning another dozen tournaments, in fact), here's what I will hope for this year's World Series:

Texas Rangers vs Whoever, Rangers win it in 5.  Or 4.  Maybe 6.  Just not 7, I don't think those fans deserve that kind of torture again.

And, with the Rangers in mind, let's get on with the projections!

Josh Hamilton

Current Projections: 103 Rs, 178 hits, 30 2B, 2 3B, 51 HR, 148 RBI, 63 BB, 150 SO, .314 Avg, .381 OBP.

I like Josh Hamilton.  A lot.  I hope that he wins another MVP award this year.  In fact, I seriously hope that he out does all of these projections.  Let him get 200 hits, bat at least .330, hit at least 50 HRs, maybe top 148 RBIs, walk more, strikeout less.  But, the projections are the projections.  If he has a couple hot streaks like he had earlier this year, it'd be good.  Chances are he'll get out of this slow period for another time or two.

Joey Votto

After my Indians fandom, I am a fan of the Cincinnati Reds.  I love how strong Votto has come out of the gate.  His current projections are:

104 Rs, 193 Hits, 69 2Bs, 29 HRs, 98 RBIs, 125 BBs, 127 SOs, Avg .350(!!), OBP .471 (Also !!!).

If it weren't for the ridiculous incompetence of Dusty Baker, Votto would have a projection of 150 RBIs by this time.  But, no, Baker puts two pathetic OBP folks in front of Votto more often than not.  You'd think he was the manager of Ichiro at some point, and believed that hitting 200 singles in a season was as good as having an OBP above .350.

Anyway, Votto needs to pick up the pace just enough to get 200 hits.  I read somewhere that there were only two players in history who had 200+ hits and 120+ BBs--Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig.  Now that is some fascinating company.

Adam Dunn

It was painful to watch his numbers last season, but very few people actually seemed to think he was Dunn (see what I did there?).  Thus far, he has proven his fans to be correct.  He's batting a pathetic .210, but his OBP of .359 is good enough for 43rd place as of today (and far superior to the "HOF" Ichiro's .297, but not quite as strong as Ichiro's lifetime .367 (which, by the way, is better than the folks Dusty has playing in front of Votto)).

Current projections:   90 Rs, 119 Hits (what?), 21 2Bs, 49 HRs (which would be a career high), 119 RBIs (obviously in a better managed lineup than Votto), 131 BBs (crazy), 258 SOs (probably a record), and then the numbers presented earlier.

Some pretty ugly stuff, but some nice stuff, too.  I hope he pulls the average up, the OBP, and keeps on pace with the HRs.  That'd be great.

Cliff Lee

Um... projected to win Zero games.  Never mind.


Albert

Most folks I hear anticipate that he will beat out the current projections.  Most believe he will bat .300+, hit 30+ HRs, and have 100+ RBIs.  He's a bit on the hot side right now, but we shall see.

Current projections: 627 ABs, 84 Rs, 170 Hits, 43 2Bs, 25 HRs, 98 RBIs, 57 BBs (if he stays hot, that will change rather dramatically), 78 SOs, currently a .271 avg and 331 obp.  Those numbers will change.

Or... maybe they won't.  I think he's showing wear.  Last year didn't look like Albert, and I didn't think he deserved the #1 pre-season ranking that ESPN analysts gave him.  I have no idea how they thought that.

CC Sabathia

Unfortunately, as a former Indians fan who follows this heavyweight, CC is currently on the DL.  That'll slow his pace towards another 20 W season.  Yes, I know the Keith Laws and such of the universe think that W's are meaningless.  I don't.  There's more to this game than the numbers--there is the human factor that contributes to such things.  I would never have voted for a Cy Young for a 12 game winner (or was it 13?).  I don't care how fancy your numbers are--you didn't pull a Steve Carlton and win half your team's games.  Lame.

Anyway, CC's current projections are: 222 IP, 60 BBs, 218 K's, 19 W's, 6 L's.

Works for me.  Go CC.  And, fail Yankees. 

Matt Kemp

How do you do projections on a guy when the projections currently suggest he will play only 73 games?  Never mind.


Yu Darvish

Certainly an interesting figure.  I was hearing folks projecting him as the Cy Young before he threw his first major league pitch.  Thus far, he hasn't totally damaged their reputations.

Current projections: 207.2 IP, 18 HRs, 107 BB's, 237 K's, 20 W's, 10 L's.

I'd like to see more consistent dominance, because he's pitching for my hopeful World Series winner.

A few others

There are a few other players who intrigue me--some because of the teams they play for, others because they are novelties, or they are having rather significant years.  A few other projections:

Adrian Beltre is having a good year--which he needs to do in order to rightly support my Nolan Ryan  team.  Projected to hit 36 2Bs, 28 HRs, get 105 RBIs, and is batting .323.

Stephen Strasburg, whose innings limits are talked about constantly, particularly because the Nats are actual contenders this year, is on pace for 19 W's, 6 L's, 196 IP's (which, apparently, he will not reach), 257 K's, 57 BB's, and WHIP of 1.08.

R. A. Dickey, the now famed knuckleballer, is on pace to win 24 (!!), only lose 2 (!!!), 229 IP's, 235 K's, a stifling 0.88 WHIP and .190 opponents batting average.

GO R. A.  I am totally not a Mets fan, but this story is too good not to cheer for.


So...

I guess time will tell whose excellence continues, who floats to the top, and whether or not my Cleveland Indians become a dominant force in baseball.

[Sigh]... never mind.


































































Wednesday, April 25, 2012

Albert Pujols?

Alright, I do wish he had hung around in Saint Louis and finished his career there.  If I were a baseball player, I'd have stuck with one team.  But that's me--I still believe in loyalty.  I've been with the same company for almost 18 years now--even though I've been knocked around a bit, seen my work gain awards for others, etc.

I'm just loyal.

Albert Pujols, though, is now a Los Angeles Angel.  Off we go.

So.... he was 0 for 4 last night, his batting average is down to .234, his on base percentage is at a meager .284, and his slugging percentage is .333--which is only 6 points better than his career batting average.  Yes, I realize we are only 17 games in.... but that is ten percent of the season!  No homers?!  What the.....

I was one who was concerned about him near the end of the year last year.  He wasn't the same.  Eventually he kicked in and got the HR totals that were routine for him in the past, but.... his batting average and RBI numbers didn't get there.  Have to wonder whether he's already on the decline.  I really hope not, because I want him to have a career batting average in the 320s and to bury Bad Man Bonds and his supposed HR record.

Time will tell.