Mid-Season Hopeful Projections

It is almost time for the All-Star break, so this morning I was looking around at a few players to see what their current "projections" are for the year.  One thing I love about baseball is--the numbers.  They intrigue me, fascinate me, get my attention, make me feel giddy and free.

Or something.

So, I'm going to provide somewhat of a "wish list" here, with some of those projections in mind.

World Series

The World Series that I hope for every single year is simply this--Cleveland Indians vs Cincinnati Reds, Indians win in seven.

Yes, I totally realize that this is fantasy.  But, heck, this is my baseball blog, right?

I'd even be good with the Indians being down 3-0 after three games--as long as they don't break my heart again like they did in 1997!  (Jose Mesa is NOT available now, right?)

World Series II

Okay, since my fantasy World Series is less than likely (Tiger Woods has a better chance of winning another dozen tournaments, in fact), here's what I will hope for this year's World Series:

Texas Rangers vs Whoever, Rangers win it in 5.  Or 4.  Maybe 6.  Just not 7, I don't think those fans deserve that kind of torture again.

And, with the Rangers in mind, let's get on with the projections!

Josh Hamilton

Current Projections: 103 Rs, 178 hits, 30 2B, 2 3B, 51 HR, 148 RBI, 63 BB, 150 SO, .314 Avg, .381 OBP.

I like Josh Hamilton.  A lot.  I hope that he wins another MVP award this year.  In fact, I seriously hope that he out does all of these projections.  Let him get 200 hits, bat at least .330, hit at least 50 HRs, maybe top 148 RBIs, walk more, strikeout less.  But, the projections are the projections.  If he has a couple hot streaks like he had earlier this year, it'd be good.  Chances are he'll get out of this slow period for another time or two.

Joey Votto

After my Indians fandom, I am a fan of the Cincinnati Reds.  I love how strong Votto has come out of the gate.  His current projections are:

104 Rs, 193 Hits, 69 2Bs, 29 HRs, 98 RBIs, 125 BBs, 127 SOs, Avg .350(!!), OBP .471 (Also !!!).

If it weren't for the ridiculous incompetence of Dusty Baker, Votto would have a projection of 150 RBIs by this time.  But, no, Baker puts two pathetic OBP folks in front of Votto more often than not.  You'd think he was the manager of Ichiro at some point, and believed that hitting 200 singles in a season was as good as having an OBP above .350.

Anyway, Votto needs to pick up the pace just enough to get 200 hits.  I read somewhere that there were only two players in history who had 200+ hits and 120+ BBs--Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig.  Now that is some fascinating company.

Adam Dunn

It was painful to watch his numbers last season, but very few people actually seemed to think he was Dunn (see what I did there?).  Thus far, he has proven his fans to be correct.  He's batting a pathetic .210, but his OBP of .359 is good enough for 43rd place as of today (and far superior to the "HOF" Ichiro's .297, but not quite as strong as Ichiro's lifetime .367 (which, by the way, is better than the folks Dusty has playing in front of Votto)).

Current projections:   90 Rs, 119 Hits (what?), 21 2Bs, 49 HRs (which would be a career high), 119 RBIs (obviously in a better managed lineup than Votto), 131 BBs (crazy), 258 SOs (probably a record), and then the numbers presented earlier.

Some pretty ugly stuff, but some nice stuff, too.  I hope he pulls the average up, the OBP, and keeps on pace with the HRs.  That'd be great.

Cliff Lee

Um... projected to win Zero games.  Never mind.


Albert

Most folks I hear anticipate that he will beat out the current projections.  Most believe he will bat .300+, hit 30+ HRs, and have 100+ RBIs.  He's a bit on the hot side right now, but we shall see.

Current projections: 627 ABs, 84 Rs, 170 Hits, 43 2Bs, 25 HRs, 98 RBIs, 57 BBs (if he stays hot, that will change rather dramatically), 78 SOs, currently a .271 avg and 331 obp.  Those numbers will change.

Or... maybe they won't.  I think he's showing wear.  Last year didn't look like Albert, and I didn't think he deserved the #1 pre-season ranking that ESPN analysts gave him.  I have no idea how they thought that.

CC Sabathia

Unfortunately, as a former Indians fan who follows this heavyweight, CC is currently on the DL.  That'll slow his pace towards another 20 W season.  Yes, I know the Keith Laws and such of the universe think that W's are meaningless.  I don't.  There's more to this game than the numbers--there is the human factor that contributes to such things.  I would never have voted for a Cy Young for a 12 game winner (or was it 13?).  I don't care how fancy your numbers are--you didn't pull a Steve Carlton and win half your team's games.  Lame.

Anyway, CC's current projections are: 222 IP, 60 BBs, 218 K's, 19 W's, 6 L's.

Works for me.  Go CC.  And, fail Yankees. 

Matt Kemp

How do you do projections on a guy when the projections currently suggest he will play only 73 games?  Never mind.


Yu Darvish

Certainly an interesting figure.  I was hearing folks projecting him as the Cy Young before he threw his first major league pitch.  Thus far, he hasn't totally damaged their reputations.

Current projections: 207.2 IP, 18 HRs, 107 BB's, 237 K's, 20 W's, 10 L's.

I'd like to see more consistent dominance, because he's pitching for my hopeful World Series winner.

A few others

There are a few other players who intrigue me--some because of the teams they play for, others because they are novelties, or they are having rather significant years.  A few other projections:

Adrian Beltre is having a good year--which he needs to do in order to rightly support my Nolan Ryan  team.  Projected to hit 36 2Bs, 28 HRs, get 105 RBIs, and is batting .323.

Stephen Strasburg, whose innings limits are talked about constantly, particularly because the Nats are actual contenders this year, is on pace for 19 W's, 6 L's, 196 IP's (which, apparently, he will not reach), 257 K's, 57 BB's, and WHIP of 1.08.

R. A. Dickey, the now famed knuckleballer, is on pace to win 24 (!!), only lose 2 (!!!), 229 IP's, 235 K's, a stifling 0.88 WHIP and .190 opponents batting average.

GO R. A.  I am totally not a Mets fan, but this story is too good not to cheer for.


So...

I guess time will tell whose excellence continues, who floats to the top, and whether or not my Cleveland Indians become a dominant force in baseball.

[Sigh]... never mind.

The Triple Crown

I've been following the Triple Crown race that Albert Pujols and Joey Votto have been putting on.  Whoever this Gonzalez guy is, though, he apparently is taking over the race.

Pujols is not having a career year.  In fact, as of this writing, his batting average is a full 21 points lower than his career average!  If he had a "normal" Albert year this year, he may be a shoe-in for the Triple Crown.  I believe I read somewhere that he won the Triple Crown for the decade of 2000's.  What an incredible feat that is.  I like Pujols.  He does pretty much everything right.  If there's one thing I'd say I didn't like about Albert, it was the one time when someone else won the MVP and he questioned it.  I happened to agree that year--the award belonged in Albert's hands, but that's not the point.  It was very un-Albert-like to say what he said.  Other than that, he appears to do everything well and do everything right.

Joey Votto plays for my second favorite team, the Cincinnati Reds.  Though I am an Indians fan at my very core, the Reds caught my attention as a boy and have never let go.  Part of that had to do with the fact that my grandparents were Reds fans.  I still remember sitting in their bedroom watching the Reds in the World Series back in 1976.  I loved it.  I was snagged.  I could hope Votto wins just because he's a Red.

Prior to Gonzalez showing up on the scene, these two were battling it out for the Triple Crown.  I would have been happy with either one winning.

But who in the world is this Gonzalez kid?  Of course, the people of Colorado could easily be saying that about Joey Votto.

I've been keeping tabs on the race.  I even instituted a simple "Triple Crown Index" in which I simply add the current rank of each player in each category to determine the score.  This morning, Gonzalez leads with 5 points (1st in RBIs, 1st in batting average, 3rd in HRs).  Pujols has plummeted to 10 points (remember, his batting average is considerably lower than normal).  Votto is middling at 7 points.

So, as the current race has piqued my interest, I figured I'd look back at some prior Triple Crown winners to see how things have gone in the past.  I know I've looked at this previously, but it has been years.

Some of my old favorites were winners.  I had forgotten that Frank Robinson won it while playing with the Orioles back in 1966.  His numbers that year were very Pujols-ian: .316 average, 49 HRs, 122 RBIs.  Not a strong batting average, really, but in that time it worked.  This year's batting averages were looking similar in the NL until Gonzalez kicked into high gear. 

The last winner was Carl Yastrzemski, in 1967.  It's a bit wild to me that we had two triple crown winners in a row, and in the same league.  Carl's numbers: .326 average, 44 HRs, 121 RBIs.  Again, good numbers, but... they certainly wouldn't cut it this year.

I was curious, so I looked up Pujol's average numbers.  If we take out this year's numbers, but leave in his rookie year, he averages 40.7 HRs, 123.6 RBIs, and a batting average of .334.  Someone like that lurking in the AL would have spoiled both of these triple crowns.

I also noticed that there were triple crown winners in every decade from the 1870s to the 1960s except for the 1910s.  The triple crown winner in the 1870s did it with 4 HRs in 1878.  That's pretty funny.  One I hadn't known was that Ty Cobb got a triple crown in 1909.  He hit a walloping 9 HRs that year.

Perhaps the most impressive triple crowns were those of Rogers Hornsby.

1922 - .401 avg, 42 HRs, 152 RBIs
1925 - .403 avg, 39 HRs, 143 RBIs

There's another thing I'd love to see happen again--hitting .400.  I remember following Rod Carew's pursuit back in 1977.  He ended up batting .388--still quite remarkable.  I hoped to see Wade Boggs approach it, but .... Oh, and George Brett.  I loved that guy, and was intrigued by his good-hitting pitcher brother, Ken.  George hit .390 in 1980, the last time anyone seriously approached hitting .400.

Wait!  I had forgotten about Tony Gwynn, until I pulled this up:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/batting_avg_season.shtml

He hit .393 in 1994--high enough to rank as the 37th highest batting average in major league history.

I'll continue keeping my eye on this current triple crown race.  And, for those of you who are curious, I'll be posting my "Triple Crown Index" on Twitter.

Play ball!