Adam Dunn

Let's start with some basic numbers.

14 seasons

2001 games played
8328 ABs
462 HRs
1168 RBIs
1317 BBs
2379 Ks
.364 OBP

Do we need to say his batting average?  Oh, okay.  

.237 batting average.

Alright, that's not as putrescent as I expected.

Some other things:

Voted 4th in the NL Rookie of the Year voting, even though he only played in 66 games in his rookie season, 2001.   His WAR that year was 2.1.  Jimmy Rollings, who came in 3rd, and played in 158 games, had a WAR of 2.4.  First place was a little known fella named Albert Pujols, who played like a veteran.  

Okay, I have to go over Albert's numbers from that rookie year.  Sheesh.

161 games, 590 ABs, 112 Rs, 194 hits, 37 HRs, 130 RBIs, 69 BBs, 93 SOs, a batting average of .329, OBP of .403, slugging at .610, OPS at 1.013.  

Yes, that was absurd.  Man, I love that guy.

In 2nd place was Roy Oswalt, who was 14-3 with a 2.73 ERA.  Started only 20 games.

So, as you can see, Dunn was up against some tough competition, so getting 4th after playing only 66 games was doing pretty well.

From 2004 to 2008, Adam hit 40+ HRs every season.  In fact, for the latter 4 years, he hit exactly 40.  During all those years, though, he never led the league.  He did, sadly, lead the league in strike outs four times--including three in a row from 2004 to 2006.  His epic strike out season, though, was 2012 with the Chicago White Sox, in which he hit.. er... didn't hit anything 222 times, leading the AL.  That same year, though, he led the league in walks, too, with 105.  He led his league in BBs twice, but crossed 100 8 times in his career, with a high of 128 in 2002.  

Baseball Reference.com shows he was an all-star twice (sophomore season, as well as 2012), was 28th in voting for MVP in 2004, 26th in 2005, and 21st in 2010.  

~ ~ ~

A few possibly interesting things for the stat-heads out there. 

All time high strike out seasons?  Adam has the 2nd highest, ties for 7th highest, ties for 13th highest, owns the 15th, ties for 17th, then doesn't make another appearance until he ties for 48th.

All time HR seasons?  Tied for 96th with a host of players, makes another appearance at 224th, then ties with himself repeatedly as well as many others at 263rd.

His best season of BBs tied for 68th all time.

His best season of HRs per at bat came in 139th.

~ ~ ~

The Dayton Dragons had Adam Dunn and Austin Kearns on their team one day when some friends and I attended a game.  It may have been in 2000, maybe 2001.  I don't remember.  It seems to me they were both in MLB within a year.  

Dunn, affectionately known as "Big Donkey" to both fans and peers, was always a fan favorite.  When you hit epic home runs, you tend to be loved by the fans, but it was not just hitting HRs that made him a favorite.  He always seemed to have a good attitude, even during his career worst year of 2011.  Maybe he didn't, really, but as a fan, looking from afar, he seemed to carry himself well during what may have been the worst MLB season in the history of man.  

Then, the very next year, he bounced back with 110 Rs, 41 HRs, 96 RBIs, 105 BBs, and an appearance as an All Star.  

Loved.  That's about it.

I won't be the only guy wishing that he would hang around another year or two.  His bat has the same pop in it as it always has, and I'd love to see him get to 500.  Without that historic number, he probably has no chance at the Hall of Fame.  

But here is a bit of a case for him.

He is one of only 11 players in MLB history to hit 40+ HRs in six or more seasons.  If you have any baseball history in your head at all, you'll know every one of these names: Ruth (11), Killebrew (8), Aaron (8), Fathead Bonds (8, 5 of which were after he was juiced), ARod (8, I don't know how long he was juiced), Griffey Jr (7), Sosa (7, when wasn't he juiced?), McGwire (6, ditto), Jim Thome (6), Albert Pujols (6), and our friend Adam Dunn (6).

How about an even more exclusive list?  There have been only eight players in MLB history to hit 40+ HRs in five consecutive seasons.  Again, you'll know all of these (and I'll refrain from juicing comments this time):  Ruth (7), ARod (6), Sosa (6), Ralph Kiner (5), Duke Snider (5), Griffey Jr (5), Barry Bonds (5), and Adam Dunn (5). 

Ah, well.  Chances are these tidbits won't influence HOF voters.  [Sigh]

In the end, he had finally been on a team that made it to the post season... but the A's lost the wildcard game, never having put him in the lineup.  

You can follow Adam Dunn at  twitter.com/adamdunn_44.

I know I will be.  As Adam Dunn walks quietly into the sunset, I cannot help recognizing the quiet.  He apparently had this one thing against him--he wasn't a Yankee.

Thanks, Mr Dunn.  You were fun to watch.

Read more about him here, see his stats here. 

Mid-Season Hopeful Projections

It is almost time for the All-Star break, so this morning I was looking around at a few players to see what their current "projections" are for the year.  One thing I love about baseball is--the numbers.  They intrigue me, fascinate me, get my attention, make me feel giddy and free.

Or something.

So, I'm going to provide somewhat of a "wish list" here, with some of those projections in mind.

World Series

The World Series that I hope for every single year is simply this--Cleveland Indians vs Cincinnati Reds, Indians win in seven.

Yes, I totally realize that this is fantasy.  But, heck, this is my baseball blog, right?

I'd even be good with the Indians being down 3-0 after three games--as long as they don't break my heart again like they did in 1997!  (Jose Mesa is NOT available now, right?)

World Series II

Okay, since my fantasy World Series is less than likely (Tiger Woods has a better chance of winning another dozen tournaments, in fact), here's what I will hope for this year's World Series:

Texas Rangers vs Whoever, Rangers win it in 5.  Or 4.  Maybe 6.  Just not 7, I don't think those fans deserve that kind of torture again.

And, with the Rangers in mind, let's get on with the projections!

Josh Hamilton

Current Projections: 103 Rs, 178 hits, 30 2B, 2 3B, 51 HR, 148 RBI, 63 BB, 150 SO, .314 Avg, .381 OBP.

I like Josh Hamilton.  A lot.  I hope that he wins another MVP award this year.  In fact, I seriously hope that he out does all of these projections.  Let him get 200 hits, bat at least .330, hit at least 50 HRs, maybe top 148 RBIs, walk more, strikeout less.  But, the projections are the projections.  If he has a couple hot streaks like he had earlier this year, it'd be good.  Chances are he'll get out of this slow period for another time or two.

Joey Votto

After my Indians fandom, I am a fan of the Cincinnati Reds.  I love how strong Votto has come out of the gate.  His current projections are:

104 Rs, 193 Hits, 69 2Bs, 29 HRs, 98 RBIs, 125 BBs, 127 SOs, Avg .350(!!), OBP .471 (Also !!!).

If it weren't for the ridiculous incompetence of Dusty Baker, Votto would have a projection of 150 RBIs by this time.  But, no, Baker puts two pathetic OBP folks in front of Votto more often than not.  You'd think he was the manager of Ichiro at some point, and believed that hitting 200 singles in a season was as good as having an OBP above .350.

Anyway, Votto needs to pick up the pace just enough to get 200 hits.  I read somewhere that there were only two players in history who had 200+ hits and 120+ BBs--Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig.  Now that is some fascinating company.

Adam Dunn

It was painful to watch his numbers last season, but very few people actually seemed to think he was Dunn (see what I did there?).  Thus far, he has proven his fans to be correct.  He's batting a pathetic .210, but his OBP of .359 is good enough for 43rd place as of today (and far superior to the "HOF" Ichiro's .297, but not quite as strong as Ichiro's lifetime .367 (which, by the way, is better than the folks Dusty has playing in front of Votto)).

Current projections:   90 Rs, 119 Hits (what?), 21 2Bs, 49 HRs (which would be a career high), 119 RBIs (obviously in a better managed lineup than Votto), 131 BBs (crazy), 258 SOs (probably a record), and then the numbers presented earlier.

Some pretty ugly stuff, but some nice stuff, too.  I hope he pulls the average up, the OBP, and keeps on pace with the HRs.  That'd be great.

Cliff Lee

Um... projected to win Zero games.  Never mind.


Albert

Most folks I hear anticipate that he will beat out the current projections.  Most believe he will bat .300+, hit 30+ HRs, and have 100+ RBIs.  He's a bit on the hot side right now, but we shall see.

Current projections: 627 ABs, 84 Rs, 170 Hits, 43 2Bs, 25 HRs, 98 RBIs, 57 BBs (if he stays hot, that will change rather dramatically), 78 SOs, currently a .271 avg and 331 obp.  Those numbers will change.

Or... maybe they won't.  I think he's showing wear.  Last year didn't look like Albert, and I didn't think he deserved the #1 pre-season ranking that ESPN analysts gave him.  I have no idea how they thought that.

CC Sabathia

Unfortunately, as a former Indians fan who follows this heavyweight, CC is currently on the DL.  That'll slow his pace towards another 20 W season.  Yes, I know the Keith Laws and such of the universe think that W's are meaningless.  I don't.  There's more to this game than the numbers--there is the human factor that contributes to such things.  I would never have voted for a Cy Young for a 12 game winner (or was it 13?).  I don't care how fancy your numbers are--you didn't pull a Steve Carlton and win half your team's games.  Lame.

Anyway, CC's current projections are: 222 IP, 60 BBs, 218 K's, 19 W's, 6 L's.

Works for me.  Go CC.  And, fail Yankees. 

Matt Kemp

How do you do projections on a guy when the projections currently suggest he will play only 73 games?  Never mind.


Yu Darvish

Certainly an interesting figure.  I was hearing folks projecting him as the Cy Young before he threw his first major league pitch.  Thus far, he hasn't totally damaged their reputations.

Current projections: 207.2 IP, 18 HRs, 107 BB's, 237 K's, 20 W's, 10 L's.

I'd like to see more consistent dominance, because he's pitching for my hopeful World Series winner.

A few others

There are a few other players who intrigue me--some because of the teams they play for, others because they are novelties, or they are having rather significant years.  A few other projections:

Adrian Beltre is having a good year--which he needs to do in order to rightly support my Nolan Ryan  team.  Projected to hit 36 2Bs, 28 HRs, get 105 RBIs, and is batting .323.

Stephen Strasburg, whose innings limits are talked about constantly, particularly because the Nats are actual contenders this year, is on pace for 19 W's, 6 L's, 196 IP's (which, apparently, he will not reach), 257 K's, 57 BB's, and WHIP of 1.08.

R. A. Dickey, the now famed knuckleballer, is on pace to win 24 (!!), only lose 2 (!!!), 229 IP's, 235 K's, a stifling 0.88 WHIP and .190 opponents batting average.

GO R. A.  I am totally not a Mets fan, but this story is too good not to cheer for.


So...

I guess time will tell whose excellence continues, who floats to the top, and whether or not my Cleveland Indians become a dominant force in baseball.

[Sigh]... never mind.

Ichiro

First, let me say--yeah, congratulations.  First person to get 200 hits in a season ten years in a row.  Congrats and everything.  Whoopie.

I think he's over-rated.  

This isn't just because I was a Big Red Machine fan, and, thus, a fan of Pete Rose (who has tore that fandom from me violently through his arrogant, absurd denials ever since you-know-when). 

Yes, I know it’s pretty cool to have 200 hits for 10 seasons in a row.  However, I’ve been hearing folks say he is under-rated.  What?  He's a lifetime singles hitter—has only had 30 or more doubles twice.  Not a LOT of value in getting to first base.  I know—he has to get on base in order to score.  Obviously.  However, there are many others who are far SUPERIOR without being 200 hit people.

Here are some easy comparisons.  I’ll use ESPN’s “seasonal averages (per 162 games played)” numbers for ease.

Ichiro – 229 hits, 107 runs, 26 2Bs, 7 3Bs, 9 HRs, 57 RBIs, 47 BBs.  Avg of .331.  OBP, though, a mere .376

Pujols – 198 hits, 123 runs, 44 2Bs, 2 3Bs, 43 HRs, 128 RBIs, 94 BBs.  Avg of .331.  OBP of .425.  FAR above.

Too harsh to compare to the best player in baseball?  Okay, how about a couple HR hitting clunkers.  These guys have played as long or longer.  Again, 162 game averages:

Dunn – 140 hits, 97 runs, 30 2Bs, 1 3B, 40 HRs, 98 RBIs, 111 BBs.  Avg.251, but OBP of .381. 

Thome (a personal favorite, as an Indians fan) – 150 hits, 104 runs, 29 2Bs, 2 3Bs, 40 HRs, 110 RBIs, 114 BBs.  Avg .278, but OBP of .404.

Yes, Thome is a Hall of Famer.  But the thing is—with 50 hits less per season, his production is FAR superior to any singles hitter. 

There’s really no favorable comparison.  I got to wondering—what if I found someone with similar OBP who was a NOBODY.  Would that be more convincing?  I don’t know.  How about if I just find some long careers that had OBP of comparable numbers.

Like Brett Butler - .3769.  And that is for 17 seasons.  He never had 200 hits in a season.  Pretty much another singles hitter, but he knew how to get on base in other ways, too.  That’s the thing—Ichiro doesn’t get walks—at least not in quantities you’d expect from someone who wants to get on base a lot.  What, no eye?

How about the man to whom he ought to be compared--whose record he would possibly had broke if he had played in the states all these years:

Rose (taken from Baseball Reference) 162 game averages: 194 hits, 98 runs, 34 2Bs, 6 3Bs, 7 HRs, 60 RBIs, 71 BBs.  Avg .303, OBP of .375.  

See, now that is far more comparable... but Rose will also never make it to the Hall.  Neither, perhaps, ought Ichiro.  In reality, Rose broke the hits record not because he was a great hitter (lifetime .303), but because of longevity.  Hustler?  Yes.  In reality--also over-rated.  His career numbers may've looked more impressive had he not hung around so long afterwards...

OBP.  Currently, he is ranked 39th in the majors for the year.  2009 - 30th; 2008 - 58th; 2007 - 19th; 2006 - 46th.  Need I go on?  


Over. Rated.