Ichiro

First, let me say--yeah, congratulations.  First person to get 200 hits in a season ten years in a row.  Congrats and everything.  Whoopie.

I think he's over-rated.  

This isn't just because I was a Big Red Machine fan, and, thus, a fan of Pete Rose (who has tore that fandom from me violently through his arrogant, absurd denials ever since you-know-when). 

Yes, I know it’s pretty cool to have 200 hits for 10 seasons in a row.  However, I’ve been hearing folks say he is under-rated.  What?  He's a lifetime singles hitter—has only had 30 or more doubles twice.  Not a LOT of value in getting to first base.  I know—he has to get on base in order to score.  Obviously.  However, there are many others who are far SUPERIOR without being 200 hit people.

Here are some easy comparisons.  I’ll use ESPN’s “seasonal averages (per 162 games played)” numbers for ease.

Ichiro – 229 hits, 107 runs, 26 2Bs, 7 3Bs, 9 HRs, 57 RBIs, 47 BBs.  Avg of .331.  OBP, though, a mere .376

Pujols – 198 hits, 123 runs, 44 2Bs, 2 3Bs, 43 HRs, 128 RBIs, 94 BBs.  Avg of .331.  OBP of .425.  FAR above.

Too harsh to compare to the best player in baseball?  Okay, how about a couple HR hitting clunkers.  These guys have played as long or longer.  Again, 162 game averages:

Dunn – 140 hits, 97 runs, 30 2Bs, 1 3B, 40 HRs, 98 RBIs, 111 BBs.  Avg.251, but OBP of .381. 

Thome (a personal favorite, as an Indians fan) – 150 hits, 104 runs, 29 2Bs, 2 3Bs, 40 HRs, 110 RBIs, 114 BBs.  Avg .278, but OBP of .404.

Yes, Thome is a Hall of Famer.  But the thing is—with 50 hits less per season, his production is FAR superior to any singles hitter. 

There’s really no favorable comparison.  I got to wondering—what if I found someone with similar OBP who was a NOBODY.  Would that be more convincing?  I don’t know.  How about if I just find some long careers that had OBP of comparable numbers.

Like Brett Butler - .3769.  And that is for 17 seasons.  He never had 200 hits in a season.  Pretty much another singles hitter, but he knew how to get on base in other ways, too.  That’s the thing—Ichiro doesn’t get walks—at least not in quantities you’d expect from someone who wants to get on base a lot.  What, no eye?

How about the man to whom he ought to be compared--whose record he would possibly had broke if he had played in the states all these years:

Rose (taken from Baseball Reference) 162 game averages: 194 hits, 98 runs, 34 2Bs, 6 3Bs, 7 HRs, 60 RBIs, 71 BBs.  Avg .303, OBP of .375.  

See, now that is far more comparable... but Rose will also never make it to the Hall.  Neither, perhaps, ought Ichiro.  In reality, Rose broke the hits record not because he was a great hitter (lifetime .303), but because of longevity.  Hustler?  Yes.  In reality--also over-rated.  His career numbers may've looked more impressive had he not hung around so long afterwards...

OBP.  Currently, he is ranked 39th in the majors for the year.  2009 - 30th; 2008 - 58th; 2007 - 19th; 2006 - 46th.  Need I go on?  


Over. Rated.