Ichiro

First, let me say--yeah, congratulations.  First person to get 200 hits in a season ten years in a row.  Congrats and everything.  Whoopie.

I think he's over-rated.  

This isn't just because I was a Big Red Machine fan, and, thus, a fan of Pete Rose (who has tore that fandom from me violently through his arrogant, absurd denials ever since you-know-when). 

Yes, I know it’s pretty cool to have 200 hits for 10 seasons in a row.  However, I’ve been hearing folks say he is under-rated.  What?  He's a lifetime singles hitter—has only had 30 or more doubles twice.  Not a LOT of value in getting to first base.  I know—he has to get on base in order to score.  Obviously.  However, there are many others who are far SUPERIOR without being 200 hit people.

Here are some easy comparisons.  I’ll use ESPN’s “seasonal averages (per 162 games played)” numbers for ease.

Ichiro – 229 hits, 107 runs, 26 2Bs, 7 3Bs, 9 HRs, 57 RBIs, 47 BBs.  Avg of .331.  OBP, though, a mere .376

Pujols – 198 hits, 123 runs, 44 2Bs, 2 3Bs, 43 HRs, 128 RBIs, 94 BBs.  Avg of .331.  OBP of .425.  FAR above.

Too harsh to compare to the best player in baseball?  Okay, how about a couple HR hitting clunkers.  These guys have played as long or longer.  Again, 162 game averages:

Dunn – 140 hits, 97 runs, 30 2Bs, 1 3B, 40 HRs, 98 RBIs, 111 BBs.  Avg.251, but OBP of .381. 

Thome (a personal favorite, as an Indians fan) – 150 hits, 104 runs, 29 2Bs, 2 3Bs, 40 HRs, 110 RBIs, 114 BBs.  Avg .278, but OBP of .404.

Yes, Thome is a Hall of Famer.  But the thing is—with 50 hits less per season, his production is FAR superior to any singles hitter. 

There’s really no favorable comparison.  I got to wondering—what if I found someone with similar OBP who was a NOBODY.  Would that be more convincing?  I don’t know.  How about if I just find some long careers that had OBP of comparable numbers.

Like Brett Butler - .3769.  And that is for 17 seasons.  He never had 200 hits in a season.  Pretty much another singles hitter, but he knew how to get on base in other ways, too.  That’s the thing—Ichiro doesn’t get walks—at least not in quantities you’d expect from someone who wants to get on base a lot.  What, no eye?

How about the man to whom he ought to be compared--whose record he would possibly had broke if he had played in the states all these years:

Rose (taken from Baseball Reference) 162 game averages: 194 hits, 98 runs, 34 2Bs, 6 3Bs, 7 HRs, 60 RBIs, 71 BBs.  Avg .303, OBP of .375.  

See, now that is far more comparable... but Rose will also never make it to the Hall.  Neither, perhaps, ought Ichiro.  In reality, Rose broke the hits record not because he was a great hitter (lifetime .303), but because of longevity.  Hustler?  Yes.  In reality--also over-rated.  His career numbers may've looked more impressive had he not hung around so long afterwards...

OBP.  Currently, he is ranked 39th in the majors for the year.  2009 - 30th; 2008 - 58th; 2007 - 19th; 2006 - 46th.  Need I go on?  


Over. Rated.

Waiting for C.C....

Remember, I'm an Indians fan.  I grew up hating the Yankees.  That's just the way we were taught.  My brother and I would lie in bed at night listening to Pete Franklin stirring up the masses about the up-coming Yankees games.  Somewhere along the way, Mr Franklin came up with the "I hate the Yankee hankee".  Thousands (perhaps) of Indians fans waved them when the Yankees next came into town.

Having said that, I have softened in my old age.  Though still not a Yankee's fan, I do find myself intrigued by teams that become such public icons, teams whose ownership are dead-set against being losers (like the Indians sort of in the 90's, for example... humor me). 

Also, as an Indians fan, I cheer for former Indians--those who are traded away because the Indians are too cheap to keep the good ones (although they are more than willing to pay for the Wayne Garlands and Useless Hafner's of the world).  So, I watch as our favorite catcher plays for the Red Sox, two former Cy Young winners pitch for the Brewers / Yankees and Phillies / Mariners / Rangers. 

At the moment, I'm hoping that C.C. gets his 20th win, and then some.  I know he's a Yankee, but so is Derek Jeter--who is a pretty cool guy; and so is A-Rod, who though a public nuisance, has produced numbers (though somewhat juiced) that keep my attention. 

So, last night C.C. went for his 20th win.  He pitched 8 innings of 2-hit ball, giving up zero runs. 

Should be good for a win, right?

Incorrect. 

I started thinking about the ridiculous line-up that the Yankees have, and did a little research.

From inning one through part of inning 8 the Yankees line-up cost $105,876,000.  No runs.
For part of the eighth inning, their line-up cost $119,476,000.  No runs.
From the middle of the eighth until somewhere in the 10th inning the line-up cost $105,428,500.  No runs.
For a moment in the 10th inning the line-up cost $111,877,500.  No runs.
For the remainder of the game the line-up cost $105,027,500.  No runs.

So, at its peak, the line-up cost $119,476,000.  That doesn't count C.C.'s $24,285,714. 

And this expensive line-up and pitcher were going up against a pitcher who is making a meager $1,834,671.  That pitcher held the tide on that expensive line-up. 

I just found that interesting.

The Triple Crown

I've been following the Triple Crown race that Albert Pujols and Joey Votto have been putting on.  Whoever this Gonzalez guy is, though, he apparently is taking over the race.

Pujols is not having a career year.  In fact, as of this writing, his batting average is a full 21 points lower than his career average!  If he had a "normal" Albert year this year, he may be a shoe-in for the Triple Crown.  I believe I read somewhere that he won the Triple Crown for the decade of 2000's.  What an incredible feat that is.  I like Pujols.  He does pretty much everything right.  If there's one thing I'd say I didn't like about Albert, it was the one time when someone else won the MVP and he questioned it.  I happened to agree that year--the award belonged in Albert's hands, but that's not the point.  It was very un-Albert-like to say what he said.  Other than that, he appears to do everything well and do everything right.

Joey Votto plays for my second favorite team, the Cincinnati Reds.  Though I am an Indians fan at my very core, the Reds caught my attention as a boy and have never let go.  Part of that had to do with the fact that my grandparents were Reds fans.  I still remember sitting in their bedroom watching the Reds in the World Series back in 1976.  I loved it.  I was snagged.  I could hope Votto wins just because he's a Red.

Prior to Gonzalez showing up on the scene, these two were battling it out for the Triple Crown.  I would have been happy with either one winning.

But who in the world is this Gonzalez kid?  Of course, the people of Colorado could easily be saying that about Joey Votto.

I've been keeping tabs on the race.  I even instituted a simple "Triple Crown Index" in which I simply add the current rank of each player in each category to determine the score.  This morning, Gonzalez leads with 5 points (1st in RBIs, 1st in batting average, 3rd in HRs).  Pujols has plummeted to 10 points (remember, his batting average is considerably lower than normal).  Votto is middling at 7 points.

So, as the current race has piqued my interest, I figured I'd look back at some prior Triple Crown winners to see how things have gone in the past.  I know I've looked at this previously, but it has been years.

Some of my old favorites were winners.  I had forgotten that Frank Robinson won it while playing with the Orioles back in 1966.  His numbers that year were very Pujols-ian: .316 average, 49 HRs, 122 RBIs.  Not a strong batting average, really, but in that time it worked.  This year's batting averages were looking similar in the NL until Gonzalez kicked into high gear. 

The last winner was Carl Yastrzemski, in 1967.  It's a bit wild to me that we had two triple crown winners in a row, and in the same league.  Carl's numbers: .326 average, 44 HRs, 121 RBIs.  Again, good numbers, but... they certainly wouldn't cut it this year.

I was curious, so I looked up Pujol's average numbers.  If we take out this year's numbers, but leave in his rookie year, he averages 40.7 HRs, 123.6 RBIs, and a batting average of .334.  Someone like that lurking in the AL would have spoiled both of these triple crowns.

I also noticed that there were triple crown winners in every decade from the 1870s to the 1960s except for the 1910s.  The triple crown winner in the 1870s did it with 4 HRs in 1878.  That's pretty funny.  One I hadn't known was that Ty Cobb got a triple crown in 1909.  He hit a walloping 9 HRs that year.

Perhaps the most impressive triple crowns were those of Rogers Hornsby.

1922 - .401 avg, 42 HRs, 152 RBIs
1925 - .403 avg, 39 HRs, 143 RBIs

There's another thing I'd love to see happen again--hitting .400.  I remember following Rod Carew's pursuit back in 1977.  He ended up batting .388--still quite remarkable.  I hoped to see Wade Boggs approach it, but .... Oh, and George Brett.  I loved that guy, and was intrigued by his good-hitting pitcher brother, Ken.  George hit .390 in 1980, the last time anyone seriously approached hitting .400.

Wait!  I had forgotten about Tony Gwynn, until I pulled this up:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/batting_avg_season.shtml

He hit .393 in 1994--high enough to rank as the 37th highest batting average in major league history.

I'll continue keeping my eye on this current triple crown race.  And, for those of you who are curious, I'll be posting my "Triple Crown Index" on Twitter.

Play ball!