Mid-Season Hopeful Projections

It is almost time for the All-Star break, so this morning I was looking around at a few players to see what their current "projections" are for the year.  One thing I love about baseball is--the numbers.  They intrigue me, fascinate me, get my attention, make me feel giddy and free.

Or something.

So, I'm going to provide somewhat of a "wish list" here, with some of those projections in mind.

World Series

The World Series that I hope for every single year is simply this--Cleveland Indians vs Cincinnati Reds, Indians win in seven.

Yes, I totally realize that this is fantasy.  But, heck, this is my baseball blog, right?

I'd even be good with the Indians being down 3-0 after three games--as long as they don't break my heart again like they did in 1997!  (Jose Mesa is NOT available now, right?)

World Series II

Okay, since my fantasy World Series is less than likely (Tiger Woods has a better chance of winning another dozen tournaments, in fact), here's what I will hope for this year's World Series:

Texas Rangers vs Whoever, Rangers win it in 5.  Or 4.  Maybe 6.  Just not 7, I don't think those fans deserve that kind of torture again.

And, with the Rangers in mind, let's get on with the projections!

Josh Hamilton

Current Projections: 103 Rs, 178 hits, 30 2B, 2 3B, 51 HR, 148 RBI, 63 BB, 150 SO, .314 Avg, .381 OBP.

I like Josh Hamilton.  A lot.  I hope that he wins another MVP award this year.  In fact, I seriously hope that he out does all of these projections.  Let him get 200 hits, bat at least .330, hit at least 50 HRs, maybe top 148 RBIs, walk more, strikeout less.  But, the projections are the projections.  If he has a couple hot streaks like he had earlier this year, it'd be good.  Chances are he'll get out of this slow period for another time or two.

Joey Votto

After my Indians fandom, I am a fan of the Cincinnati Reds.  I love how strong Votto has come out of the gate.  His current projections are:

104 Rs, 193 Hits, 69 2Bs, 29 HRs, 98 RBIs, 125 BBs, 127 SOs, Avg .350(!!), OBP .471 (Also !!!).

If it weren't for the ridiculous incompetence of Dusty Baker, Votto would have a projection of 150 RBIs by this time.  But, no, Baker puts two pathetic OBP folks in front of Votto more often than not.  You'd think he was the manager of Ichiro at some point, and believed that hitting 200 singles in a season was as good as having an OBP above .350.

Anyway, Votto needs to pick up the pace just enough to get 200 hits.  I read somewhere that there were only two players in history who had 200+ hits and 120+ BBs--Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig.  Now that is some fascinating company.

Adam Dunn

It was painful to watch his numbers last season, but very few people actually seemed to think he was Dunn (see what I did there?).  Thus far, he has proven his fans to be correct.  He's batting a pathetic .210, but his OBP of .359 is good enough for 43rd place as of today (and far superior to the "HOF" Ichiro's .297, but not quite as strong as Ichiro's lifetime .367 (which, by the way, is better than the folks Dusty has playing in front of Votto)).

Current projections:   90 Rs, 119 Hits (what?), 21 2Bs, 49 HRs (which would be a career high), 119 RBIs (obviously in a better managed lineup than Votto), 131 BBs (crazy), 258 SOs (probably a record), and then the numbers presented earlier.

Some pretty ugly stuff, but some nice stuff, too.  I hope he pulls the average up, the OBP, and keeps on pace with the HRs.  That'd be great.

Cliff Lee

Um... projected to win Zero games.  Never mind.


Albert

Most folks I hear anticipate that he will beat out the current projections.  Most believe he will bat .300+, hit 30+ HRs, and have 100+ RBIs.  He's a bit on the hot side right now, but we shall see.

Current projections: 627 ABs, 84 Rs, 170 Hits, 43 2Bs, 25 HRs, 98 RBIs, 57 BBs (if he stays hot, that will change rather dramatically), 78 SOs, currently a .271 avg and 331 obp.  Those numbers will change.

Or... maybe they won't.  I think he's showing wear.  Last year didn't look like Albert, and I didn't think he deserved the #1 pre-season ranking that ESPN analysts gave him.  I have no idea how they thought that.

CC Sabathia

Unfortunately, as a former Indians fan who follows this heavyweight, CC is currently on the DL.  That'll slow his pace towards another 20 W season.  Yes, I know the Keith Laws and such of the universe think that W's are meaningless.  I don't.  There's more to this game than the numbers--there is the human factor that contributes to such things.  I would never have voted for a Cy Young for a 12 game winner (or was it 13?).  I don't care how fancy your numbers are--you didn't pull a Steve Carlton and win half your team's games.  Lame.

Anyway, CC's current projections are: 222 IP, 60 BBs, 218 K's, 19 W's, 6 L's.

Works for me.  Go CC.  And, fail Yankees. 

Matt Kemp

How do you do projections on a guy when the projections currently suggest he will play only 73 games?  Never mind.


Yu Darvish

Certainly an interesting figure.  I was hearing folks projecting him as the Cy Young before he threw his first major league pitch.  Thus far, he hasn't totally damaged their reputations.

Current projections: 207.2 IP, 18 HRs, 107 BB's, 237 K's, 20 W's, 10 L's.

I'd like to see more consistent dominance, because he's pitching for my hopeful World Series winner.

A few others

There are a few other players who intrigue me--some because of the teams they play for, others because they are novelties, or they are having rather significant years.  A few other projections:

Adrian Beltre is having a good year--which he needs to do in order to rightly support my Nolan Ryan  team.  Projected to hit 36 2Bs, 28 HRs, get 105 RBIs, and is batting .323.

Stephen Strasburg, whose innings limits are talked about constantly, particularly because the Nats are actual contenders this year, is on pace for 19 W's, 6 L's, 196 IP's (which, apparently, he will not reach), 257 K's, 57 BB's, and WHIP of 1.08.

R. A. Dickey, the now famed knuckleballer, is on pace to win 24 (!!), only lose 2 (!!!), 229 IP's, 235 K's, a stifling 0.88 WHIP and .190 opponents batting average.

GO R. A.  I am totally not a Mets fan, but this story is too good not to cheer for.


So...

I guess time will tell whose excellence continues, who floats to the top, and whether or not my Cleveland Indians become a dominant force in baseball.

[Sigh]... never mind.

Albert Pujols?

Alright, I do wish he had hung around in Saint Louis and finished his career there.  If I were a baseball player, I'd have stuck with one team.  But that's me--I still believe in loyalty.  I've been with the same company for almost 18 years now--even though I've been knocked around a bit, seen my work gain awards for others, etc.

I'm just loyal.

Albert Pujols, though, is now a Los Angeles Angel.  Off we go.

So.... he was 0 for 4 last night, his batting average is down to .234, his on base percentage is at a meager .284, and his slugging percentage is .333--which is only 6 points better than his career batting average.  Yes, I realize we are only 17 games in.... but that is ten percent of the season!  No homers?!  What the.....

I was one who was concerned about him near the end of the year last year.  He wasn't the same.  Eventually he kicked in and got the HR totals that were routine for him in the past, but.... his batting average and RBI numbers didn't get there.  Have to wonder whether he's already on the decline.  I really hope not, because I want him to have a career batting average in the 320s and to bury Bad Man Bonds and his supposed HR record.

Time will tell.

Rangers vs Cardinals, Please!

I have been a Nolan Ryan fan for as long as I can remember baseball.  My first set of baseball cards were the Topps cards that showed stats from 1974.  I read about this strike out phenomenon and was an immediate fan.  Baseball drew me by its numbers, and Ryan had ridiculous numbers.  In 1974 he started 41 games, completed 26 of them, pitched 332 innings, struck out 367 (less than he had the previous year), but walked over 200 batters.  I suppose that may have been why he only placed third in the Cy Young award.  Still, he was ripped off.  Catfish Hunter?  Whatever.  I remember living in Little Rock, Arkansas when he was coming to the end of his incredible and long career.  One of my life regrets is NOT heading down the highway to see him pitch in Arlington.  Ah, well.

Oh, and I loved it when he did commercials a few years later--about aspirin, if I remember right.  He was still blurring the ball past batters.  A workhorse unlike anything that is on a mound these days.

In recent years, I've been captivated by the numbers and character of Albert Pujols.  Though I'm not a Cardinals fan, I've cheered for them because of him.  You may already know that I'm first an Indians fan, then a Reds fan (being an Ohio boy).  Well, I spread out to the general Midwest after that (and cheer against the Left and East coast teams..... although I do still cheer for former Indians like Cliff Lee, CC Sabathia, and Victor Martinez).

So... pulling together these two fan-ness's (totally botched that made up word, eh?), I'm hoping to see the Cardinals and the Rangers in the World Series.  If they both make it, I don't think I'll care which one wins.  If one of them doesn't, but the other does, I'll have a team to cheer for.  If neither does... Brewers versus Detroit?  Hmm... nah.

Go Nolan, go Josh Hamilton, and go Pujols. 

The Indians

Back in 1975 I was introduced to major league baseball.  That year, I bought baseball cards, read every single one, and can still tell you that people like Tito Fuentes played second base for the Padres.  I ended up with the whole Topps 1974 set, and kept going the next year.  My favorite time of year was when those baseball cards began coming out--more reading! 

At that time, there were a few Indians who I heard on the radio from night to night.  Names like Andre Thornton, Boog Powell, Rick Manning, Duane Kuiper, Don Hood, etc.  Lots of those names still stick with me, although I have to go to Baseball Reference to refresh my memory about exactly who was on the team when I began listening.  For me, all those early years of Indians baseball run together.  I know we had Thornton and Powell, but I think we may not have had them at the same time.  Maybe I'll look later.

Meanwhile, the important stuff--the Indians are in first place.  Much to the chagrin of the talking heads of baseball, my Cleveland Indians are shockingly leading their division.  In fact, they've spent quite a bit of time leading the entire major leagues.  A recent dive (lost 5 of 6) dropped them out of that position, but they are still 5 games ahead of Detroit in the weak American Central. 

Hey... I just checked, and they still have the best winning percentage in baseball.

Sports are a very superstitious thing.  My brothers may curse me for writing about this in the first place--especially if/when the Indians take a major dive.  I suspect they will end up above .500, but.... keeping their hands on first place?  I'm not a believer yet.  Too many disappointments over the years.  I was just remembering this morning the time that they blew the World Series back in 1997.  Won't forget that in my lifetime, unless they miraculously win once.

Anyway, I am not superstitious.  Mostly.  I think.

I remember watching one of the Browns vs Broncos games ages ago with my brothers and wife.  My wife said something (I don't recall what) about the potential of losing the game.  Elway does the drive.  Brothers blame wife.

Yeah, that kind of superstition.

What can we say?  We are Cleveland fans. 

Ichiro

First, let me say--yeah, congratulations.  First person to get 200 hits in a season ten years in a row.  Congrats and everything.  Whoopie.

I think he's over-rated.  

This isn't just because I was a Big Red Machine fan, and, thus, a fan of Pete Rose (who has tore that fandom from me violently through his arrogant, absurd denials ever since you-know-when). 

Yes, I know it’s pretty cool to have 200 hits for 10 seasons in a row.  However, I’ve been hearing folks say he is under-rated.  What?  He's a lifetime singles hitter—has only had 30 or more doubles twice.  Not a LOT of value in getting to first base.  I know—he has to get on base in order to score.  Obviously.  However, there are many others who are far SUPERIOR without being 200 hit people.

Here are some easy comparisons.  I’ll use ESPN’s “seasonal averages (per 162 games played)” numbers for ease.

Ichiro – 229 hits, 107 runs, 26 2Bs, 7 3Bs, 9 HRs, 57 RBIs, 47 BBs.  Avg of .331.  OBP, though, a mere .376

Pujols – 198 hits, 123 runs, 44 2Bs, 2 3Bs, 43 HRs, 128 RBIs, 94 BBs.  Avg of .331.  OBP of .425.  FAR above.

Too harsh to compare to the best player in baseball?  Okay, how about a couple HR hitting clunkers.  These guys have played as long or longer.  Again, 162 game averages:

Dunn – 140 hits, 97 runs, 30 2Bs, 1 3B, 40 HRs, 98 RBIs, 111 BBs.  Avg.251, but OBP of .381. 

Thome (a personal favorite, as an Indians fan) – 150 hits, 104 runs, 29 2Bs, 2 3Bs, 40 HRs, 110 RBIs, 114 BBs.  Avg .278, but OBP of .404.

Yes, Thome is a Hall of Famer.  But the thing is—with 50 hits less per season, his production is FAR superior to any singles hitter. 

There’s really no favorable comparison.  I got to wondering—what if I found someone with similar OBP who was a NOBODY.  Would that be more convincing?  I don’t know.  How about if I just find some long careers that had OBP of comparable numbers.

Like Brett Butler - .3769.  And that is for 17 seasons.  He never had 200 hits in a season.  Pretty much another singles hitter, but he knew how to get on base in other ways, too.  That’s the thing—Ichiro doesn’t get walks—at least not in quantities you’d expect from someone who wants to get on base a lot.  What, no eye?

How about the man to whom he ought to be compared--whose record he would possibly had broke if he had played in the states all these years:

Rose (taken from Baseball Reference) 162 game averages: 194 hits, 98 runs, 34 2Bs, 6 3Bs, 7 HRs, 60 RBIs, 71 BBs.  Avg .303, OBP of .375.  

See, now that is far more comparable... but Rose will also never make it to the Hall.  Neither, perhaps, ought Ichiro.  In reality, Rose broke the hits record not because he was a great hitter (lifetime .303), but because of longevity.  Hustler?  Yes.  In reality--also over-rated.  His career numbers may've looked more impressive had he not hung around so long afterwards...

OBP.  Currently, he is ranked 39th in the majors for the year.  2009 - 30th; 2008 - 58th; 2007 - 19th; 2006 - 46th.  Need I go on?  


Over. Rated.

Waiting for C.C....

Remember, I'm an Indians fan.  I grew up hating the Yankees.  That's just the way we were taught.  My brother and I would lie in bed at night listening to Pete Franklin stirring up the masses about the up-coming Yankees games.  Somewhere along the way, Mr Franklin came up with the "I hate the Yankee hankee".  Thousands (perhaps) of Indians fans waved them when the Yankees next came into town.

Having said that, I have softened in my old age.  Though still not a Yankee's fan, I do find myself intrigued by teams that become such public icons, teams whose ownership are dead-set against being losers (like the Indians sort of in the 90's, for example... humor me). 

Also, as an Indians fan, I cheer for former Indians--those who are traded away because the Indians are too cheap to keep the good ones (although they are more than willing to pay for the Wayne Garlands and Useless Hafner's of the world).  So, I watch as our favorite catcher plays for the Red Sox, two former Cy Young winners pitch for the Brewers / Yankees and Phillies / Mariners / Rangers. 

At the moment, I'm hoping that C.C. gets his 20th win, and then some.  I know he's a Yankee, but so is Derek Jeter--who is a pretty cool guy; and so is A-Rod, who though a public nuisance, has produced numbers (though somewhat juiced) that keep my attention. 

So, last night C.C. went for his 20th win.  He pitched 8 innings of 2-hit ball, giving up zero runs. 

Should be good for a win, right?

Incorrect. 

I started thinking about the ridiculous line-up that the Yankees have, and did a little research.

From inning one through part of inning 8 the Yankees line-up cost $105,876,000.  No runs.
For part of the eighth inning, their line-up cost $119,476,000.  No runs.
From the middle of the eighth until somewhere in the 10th inning the line-up cost $105,428,500.  No runs.
For a moment in the 10th inning the line-up cost $111,877,500.  No runs.
For the remainder of the game the line-up cost $105,027,500.  No runs.

So, at its peak, the line-up cost $119,476,000.  That doesn't count C.C.'s $24,285,714. 

And this expensive line-up and pitcher were going up against a pitcher who is making a meager $1,834,671.  That pitcher held the tide on that expensive line-up. 

I just found that interesting.

The Triple Crown

I've been following the Triple Crown race that Albert Pujols and Joey Votto have been putting on.  Whoever this Gonzalez guy is, though, he apparently is taking over the race.

Pujols is not having a career year.  In fact, as of this writing, his batting average is a full 21 points lower than his career average!  If he had a "normal" Albert year this year, he may be a shoe-in for the Triple Crown.  I believe I read somewhere that he won the Triple Crown for the decade of 2000's.  What an incredible feat that is.  I like Pujols.  He does pretty much everything right.  If there's one thing I'd say I didn't like about Albert, it was the one time when someone else won the MVP and he questioned it.  I happened to agree that year--the award belonged in Albert's hands, but that's not the point.  It was very un-Albert-like to say what he said.  Other than that, he appears to do everything well and do everything right.

Joey Votto plays for my second favorite team, the Cincinnati Reds.  Though I am an Indians fan at my very core, the Reds caught my attention as a boy and have never let go.  Part of that had to do with the fact that my grandparents were Reds fans.  I still remember sitting in their bedroom watching the Reds in the World Series back in 1976.  I loved it.  I was snagged.  I could hope Votto wins just because he's a Red.

Prior to Gonzalez showing up on the scene, these two were battling it out for the Triple Crown.  I would have been happy with either one winning.

But who in the world is this Gonzalez kid?  Of course, the people of Colorado could easily be saying that about Joey Votto.

I've been keeping tabs on the race.  I even instituted a simple "Triple Crown Index" in which I simply add the current rank of each player in each category to determine the score.  This morning, Gonzalez leads with 5 points (1st in RBIs, 1st in batting average, 3rd in HRs).  Pujols has plummeted to 10 points (remember, his batting average is considerably lower than normal).  Votto is middling at 7 points.

So, as the current race has piqued my interest, I figured I'd look back at some prior Triple Crown winners to see how things have gone in the past.  I know I've looked at this previously, but it has been years.

Some of my old favorites were winners.  I had forgotten that Frank Robinson won it while playing with the Orioles back in 1966.  His numbers that year were very Pujols-ian: .316 average, 49 HRs, 122 RBIs.  Not a strong batting average, really, but in that time it worked.  This year's batting averages were looking similar in the NL until Gonzalez kicked into high gear. 

The last winner was Carl Yastrzemski, in 1967.  It's a bit wild to me that we had two triple crown winners in a row, and in the same league.  Carl's numbers: .326 average, 44 HRs, 121 RBIs.  Again, good numbers, but... they certainly wouldn't cut it this year.

I was curious, so I looked up Pujol's average numbers.  If we take out this year's numbers, but leave in his rookie year, he averages 40.7 HRs, 123.6 RBIs, and a batting average of .334.  Someone like that lurking in the AL would have spoiled both of these triple crowns.

I also noticed that there were triple crown winners in every decade from the 1870s to the 1960s except for the 1910s.  The triple crown winner in the 1870s did it with 4 HRs in 1878.  That's pretty funny.  One I hadn't known was that Ty Cobb got a triple crown in 1909.  He hit a walloping 9 HRs that year.

Perhaps the most impressive triple crowns were those of Rogers Hornsby.

1922 - .401 avg, 42 HRs, 152 RBIs
1925 - .403 avg, 39 HRs, 143 RBIs

There's another thing I'd love to see happen again--hitting .400.  I remember following Rod Carew's pursuit back in 1977.  He ended up batting .388--still quite remarkable.  I hoped to see Wade Boggs approach it, but .... Oh, and George Brett.  I loved that guy, and was intrigued by his good-hitting pitcher brother, Ken.  George hit .390 in 1980, the last time anyone seriously approached hitting .400.

Wait!  I had forgotten about Tony Gwynn, until I pulled this up:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/batting_avg_season.shtml

He hit .393 in 1994--high enough to rank as the 37th highest batting average in major league history.

I'll continue keeping my eye on this current triple crown race.  And, for those of you who are curious, I'll be posting my "Triple Crown Index" on Twitter.

Play ball!